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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 10.6% | 8 | 7-1-0 | 87.5% | 75.0% | 66.8% | +8.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -0.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 57.8% | +5.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.5% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.4% | -4.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.5% | 12 | 7-4-1 | 62.5% | 59.4% | 59.0% | +3.8 |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -2.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 54.6% | +2.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.2 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Water Exia | 2.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -3.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.5% | +10.0 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.9% | +6.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.7% | -6.1 |
| Luxem Mordred | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.5% | +11.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.4% | +13.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Suited | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (4 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Cerulean Decree. Losers more often ran: Reposition.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Drown in Aether | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Diana, Haunt Reminiscence | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Prudent Nock | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Chained Charge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refreshing Charge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Nimble Longbowman | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Backstep | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Reposition | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Mob Vantage | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Cover | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shademist Priestess | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vantage Point | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |